So, the question is: Who can beat UConn? I’d be willing to bet on Kentucky. If it’s the team coached by John Calipari not the one coached by Matthew Mitchell, that is. Of late, there are not many women’s teams that can accomplish or say they’ve managed a win over Connecticut. How about this for a picture? Here are the collective records in this decade of the teams in this year’s Women’s Final Four. (Actually, the list starts with the 200910 season so there are a handful of games in the previous decade.) 14555 16343 19520 22512 Can you guess which one belongs to the Connecticut Huskies? Think about it. In one or two games short of six full seasons, Connecticut has lost a total of 12 games. Twelve games! And their average scoring margin over the 237 games is plus 33.3.
Let’s take a look. HOW DO YOU LIKE YOUR STATISTICS SLICED? Are you someone who hews to what we’ll call the “standard model” which is the one which uses the familiar and comfortable shooting percentage, points per game, rebounds per game and the like? Or do you prefer the tempo adjusted metrics that deal with points per possession, floor percentage and such similar measurements. Unlike Charles Barkley, I focus on the latter. Still, when you talk about the Huskies, it doesn’t matter. By most measurements, Connecticut does it better than anyone else. And by a wide margin. Here are some samples from the standard model where UConn leads the country (The second place team and their comparable is in parentheses): Points scored per game: UConn 90.2 (DePaul 86) Field goal %: UConn 54.3 (Notre Dame 49.8) Assists per game: UConn 21.6 (Baylor 20.8) Points allowed per game: UConn 48.2 (Chattanooga 50.5) Opponent field goal %: UConn 30.6 (Princeton 34.2) If you dig around, you can find some categories where the Huskies don’t lead the country. For example, they’re second to George Washington in rebound margin (13.8 to 13.1) and they’re second in assist to turnover ratio. They are a “lowly” 12th in fewest turnovers committed though they only commit 12.24 per game. The story is essentially the same in tempo free statistics. UConn scores 1.24 points per possession (ppp). Notre Dame is second at 1.09. To give you some idea of how wide that gap is, if you take 0.15 ppp (1.241.09) off ND’s average, you’d go through a list of 77 teams before you reach Montana at 0.94 ppp. Defensively, the story is much the same. UConn concedes just 0.66 ppp. Princeton is second at 0.75. To match the spread of 0.9 ppp between the Huskies and the Tigers, you have go to the 60th best defensive team Campbell.
SO WHY PLAY THE GAME? As my amigo Willie says, “To be the best, play the best.” It’s sports. And one of the things we love about sports is that upsets happen. True, they don’t happen often with UConn but they do happen. The list of teams that have beaten the Huskies in the six year span is a very short one: Notre Dame (7), Baylor (2), Stanford (2) and St. John’s. But if St. John’s can do it, if a good but not great 2015 Stanford team can do it, why not Maryland? Page 1 of 3Page 2 of 3HOW CAN MARYLAND WIN? To win, the Terps need to: (1) score efficiently (2) defend efficiently (3) stay close. Ooooh, brilliant insight, I know, he wrote (pointing the fickle finger of sarcasm at himself). But this is easier said than done. And here’s why. Only two teams have scored more than 1.00 ppp against the Huskies this year. One was South Florida. Though they lost that game by 14 in Connecticut, it was UConn’s narrowest margin of victory thus far this season. The other team to break the 1.00 point barrier was Stanford at 1.084 ppp in the season’s second game the Huskies’ only loss
. Maryland can score efficiently. They are third in the country at 1.08 ppp and have been under one in only nine of their 36 games. Four of those came in the first eight games. In Maryland’s most inefficient game, the loss to Washington State, the Terps scored just 0.847 ppp. Generally, a team that scores above 0.90 ppp is considered to be of above average efficiency. Maryland shouldn’t expect to score with their usual efficiency. Connecticut is simply too good defensively. However, I don’t they don’t need to be that efficient. However, the Terps do need to score above that 0.90 efficiency floor. If they finish the game below that threshold, they will lose. The story is much the same on defense. For the season, the Terps have been a good, though not great, defensive team. Good defensive teams hold the opposition to under 0.90 ppp and Maryland comes in at 0.83. In only six of the Terrapins’ 36 games have they allowed the opponent to score above a point per possession. One was the loss to Notre Dame. The others, constituted some of Maryland’s closest games including the 7773 win at Minnesota, the 9388 win over Iowa and the 7774 Big Ten Tournament Championship game against Ohio State. Princeton also had a very efficient offensive day scoring 1.065 ppp and though the Terps won they had to have their most efficient offensive game of the season (excluding two early season routs against Mt. Saint Mary’s and Wagner). They also had to have a season high eFG percentage of 63.8. (A crude explanation is that eFG% adjusts shooting percentage to account for three point shots.) Only Notre Dame held the Huskies under one ppp and that just barely at 0.95. The Irish lost that game by 18 because UConn’s defense held them to just 0.723 ppp. Once again, they don’t need to hold UConn to their season defensive average but Maryland will need to get the Huskies closer to 1.00 than to 1.24. And that is a reasonable target. Five others held Connecticut below 1.10. The Terps need to join those five or Notre Dame if they want a competitive game on Sunday. WHICH IS BETTER A FAST PACE OR A SLOW ONE Pace, I think, will play a role. Here, my thoughts here may be a little contrarian but I’ve concluded that while it’s really a case of pick your poison, the Terps will be better served by slowing the pace than by trying to run with the Huskies. Stanford played a relatively up tempo pace and they are the only team to have beaten Connecticut this season. However, there are some mitigating circumstances. The Cardinal caught the Huskies very early in the season and they shot exceptionally well going 714 from behind the arc. This allowed their guards to expose a weakness in defending the dribble drive Page 2 of 3Page 3 of 3that Connecticut has addressed. Of the other teams that tried to outpace the Huskies (75 possessions or more), only Notre Dame lost by fewer than 30. Of course, much the same could be said for slowing the pace down. In the four games where teams played at 67 possessions or fewer, only St. John’s in a 7054 loss finished in the same area code. Cincinnati and Memphis lost by more than 60 and St. Francis by 56. However, all three are poor scoring teams in terms of pure points and offensive efficiency. Only St. Francis averaged close to 0.90 ppp.
Here’s why I think the Terps need to slow the pace. I will acknowledge that UConn’s half court defense is exceptionally difficult to score against. But, while none are as good as Connecticut, Maryland has played some very, very good defensive teams both in the Big Ten (e.g. Nebraska) and in the NCAA Tournament (e.g. Duke and Tennessee). Additionally, UConn has shown some vulnerability in defending the three point shot as Stanford and Dayton demonstrated clearly and emphatically. Another reason I think Maryland needs to slow the game is that the Terrapins just played two grind it out very low possession games with Duke (62) and Tennessee (63). Both times they came away with 10 point wins. Maryland maintained their offensive efficiency while containing both opponents. I’m not suggesting they should entirely eschew running but they need to run judiciously. Furthermore, I think a slower pace lends itself to supporting point number three stay close. In the loss at Stanford, UConn got the lead to double digits only once at 10 points with about six and a half minutes to play. Stanford immediately answered with a three pointer before eventually winning in overtime. Connecticut hasn’t been challenged since. How will the Huskies respond if the game is tight in the closing minutes? This is the question Maryland needs to force them to answer.
freddy from boca
how does md beat uconn. play like nova liked they played against g’town. play like the jets vs the colts.
it’s possible but not probable, but still possible.
can md get good production from howard and jones down low? can they get bennett of uconn in some early foul trouble? can they be physical or will uconn shut down md’s low post?
if the terps can play well inside they open up the outside shot for mincy, brown and walker-kimbrough…all 3 of those kids are capable of scoring 25 in any game.
well, if they could each play their best and uconn plays a little off md could win the game.
meantime, uconn women’s team is listed as a 6 pt favorite tonight vs the bucks…and vegas has them at 4-1 to win the nba title this year.
todd, did you write for testudo times. name looks familiar
· 11/12/2019
Todd
I did and still do write for Testudo Times though TerpTalk will get more of my content now. With writers like Andrew, Jake and Noah taking up some of the “Other MD Athletics” mantle, TT doesn’t need me quite as much and this presents an opportunity for me in some areas that TT didn’t.
Spread the word that I’m here.
The simple bottom line is that to win, the Terps need to collectively play their best game of the year and hope that’s good enough.
· 11/12/2019
freddy from boca
used to be a big fan of testudo times. but i think that site has unfortunately gone down hill considerably since broman left. just my opinion.
look forward to reading more of your stuff. if you could break it down with more paragraphs it would make it easier to read long posts
· 11/12/2019
Todd
Right now the format’s a problem with how Bruce and I are able to publish the stories. It should be fixed soon.
· 11/12/2019
freddy from boca
thanks for the response. look forward to reading your stuff
· 11/12/2019