Let me start with this: Never rely on me to make an accurate prediction of a sports event. For example, in the press tent prior to Maryland’s NCAA Women’s Lacrosse Tournament quarterfinal game against Northwestern, I brashly predicted that, unlike the first meeting between the two teams, this game would assuredly have no running clock. With 17:46 to play in the second half, Brooke Griffin scored to put the Terps ahead 14-4 and start the running clock. So I feel compelled to preface the rest of this preview of Friday’s women’s lacrosse semifnal game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Syracuse Orange by warning you, the reader, to look with caution and skepticism over anything I write that could be construed as predictive.
The history
Calling Maryland’s history with Syracuse one sided could classify as an understatement. Scanning Maryland’s website, I counted 18 meetings between the Terps and the Orange beginning in 1998. Maryland has won 17 of them. Perhaps surprisingly, their lone win, a 10-9 squeaker came in 2012 at College Park one of only two home games the Terps have lost under head coach Cathy Reese.
In 2014, Syracuse finished with a 21-3 record. They lost 12-10 at home to Maryland in an early season ACC contest. Their next loss came on April 27 when they fell to Maryland 13-7 in the ACC Tournament final played at Boston College. And, of course, the third loss came at Towson when the Terrapins captured a 15-12 win to claim the National Championship.
… and a rematch
The Terps and the Orange met early in the 2015 season in a game that Maryland won 10-7 in College Park. The 10 goals equaled the Terrapins’ lowest scoring output of the season (the other came in their lone loss 11-10 to Ohio State in the B1G Tournament). The game was closely contested early with Maryland clinging to a 4-3 lead after Kayla Treanor scored with 5:46 to play.
Taylor Cummings then took control of the game. She scored twice and assisted on Kristen Lamon’s goal capping a three goal spurt over three and a half minutes that put the Terps up by four. Lamon’s goal came with 31 seconds to play and the Terps may have benefited from a momentum changing moment when the officials disallowed a late Syracuse goal for a crease violation preserving Maryland’s 7-3 lead.
A defensive battle in the second half also turned in Maryland’s favor, again on an official’s ruling. Treanor scored three straight times in the second half to bring the Orange within one at 7-6. Cummings stopped the run with a goal of her own but Maryland transfer Halle Majorana scored for Syracuse once again drawing the visitors within a goal. The game turned when Reese called for a stick check after Taylor Poplawski appeared to have registered the equalizer and the stick was ruled illegal wiping out the goal.
From there, it again became the Taylor Cummings show. The junior reasserted herself in the draw circle (she finished with 6 draw controls for the game) and scored twice more to seal the Terps’ 10-7 win. As a predictive indicator, this win should be viewed cautiously for more than simply being a close contest with two crucial officiating calls turning in Maryland’s favor.
What’s changed
As befits a team that returned 10 of 12 starters from a one loss National Championship team, Maryland has been the putative and prohibitive favorite to repeat as champions and, outside of the one stumble against Ohio State, have shown few vulnerabilities. Syracuse’s return to championship weekend likely comes as a bit of a surprise.
Syracuse coach Gary Gait had to replace eight starters from his 2014 title game squad a list that included attacker Alyssa Murray – one of the all-time greats for the Orange. The game with Maryland was only the seventh of the season for a Syracuse squad that was very much a work in process.
Since losing to the Terps, the Orange have compiled a superficially unimpressive 11-5 record. However, they played the nation’s toughest schedule and have finished the season by winning seven of their last eight games including sweeping through Boston College, and the other two Final Four participants Duke and North Carolina on their way to capturing the ACC Championship.
This is a young team that has been a bit erratic over the course of the season much as one might expect. They are also a team that has not only been toughened by the challenging schedule but by playing in an unusually high number of close games. They have played four overtime games and 11 of Syracuse’s 23 games have been decided by one goal. They have a 6-5 record in those games but two of those, both of which came in overtime, came in the aforementioned ACC Tournament run.
…and what to expect
As with any lacrosse game, it literally and figuratively starts in the draw circle and, in Kailah Kempney, Syracuse has one of the best in the nation. Kempney has 186 draws for the season and her average of 8.09 per game ranks third in the country. Maryland counters with Taylor Cummings whose average of 6.55 per game places her fifth. Cummings has typically fared well against Kempney and the Orange. She won 19 draws to Kempney’s two in the three games last season and held a 6-3 edge in the regular season contest.
Offensively, Syracuse is a bit of a conundrum. They are at once top heavy and very balanced. Two players, Treanor and Majorana have exceeded 50 goal and account for 37 percent of the Orange’s total scoring. No other player on their roster has 30 goals but five have 20 or more and another four have surpassed 10 giving them 11 players in double digits.
But their offense can be slowed. Syracuse has failed to reach 10 goals in six games. Not surprisingly, they are 1-5 in those six contests. Their youth likely contributes to this lack of scoring they are prone to committing turnovers. They average over 13 per game and committed 15 in the previous meeting with the Terps. Additionally, Syracuse can be challenged on clears. The Orange sport just an 86.8 clear percentage compared to Maryland’s 90.8 percent success rate. The Terps are one of the best in the country a preventing clears allowing only 76 percent. Despite their physical style of play, Syracuse’s opponents clear successfully 81 percent of the time.
Surprisingly, Syracuse has a higher shooting percentage than Maryland .465 compared to .448 but the Terps are much stingier defensively where they allow opponents to connect on just 39.5 percent of their shots. Syracuse allows goals at a 44.6 percent rate.
While they have been outstanding all season, Maryland’s defensive unit of Shanna Brady, Megan Douty, Nadine Hadnagy, Alice Mercer and Casey Pepperman seems to be gelling at just the right moment. In two NCAA games they have limited their opponents to a combined total of 30 shots. Against UMass, this was largely a function of Maryland controlling the draw. Against Northwestern, it was the collective effort of the defensive unit. Said Douty, “I think going into the playoffs is the first time we’re actually playing to our level. We’re really working together well as a team.”
The last crucial spot is the last spot on the field – goalkeeper. Maryland’s Alex Fitzpatrick carries a .464 save percentage good for 25th best in the country while the Orange’s Kelsey Richardson has saved just 43.3 percent of the shot’s she’s faced. Two caveats need apply, however. Richardson makes 7.7 saves per game and has faced over 70 more shots than Fitzpatrick who averages just a bit over five saves per contest. Reese is confident in her grad student transfer goalkeeper who will experience her first Final Four, “She’s really settled in now and I think is playing very confidently.”
The second caveat goes to that first meeting when Richardson had probably her best outing of the season. The senior made 16 saves while allowing only 10 goals preventing 61.5 percent of Maryland’s shots on goal from getting past her which is quite an accomplishment for a keeper who otherwise saves fewer than 43 percent.
Periodically throughout the season, Maryland has struggled with their shot selection and that first Syracuse game was one example. The opposite has been true since the start of the NCAA Tournament. In their first two games against UMass and Northwestern, Maryland has connected on an astonishing 36 of 61 shots or 59 percent.
As I have written elsewhere, the title is Maryland’s for the taking. The loss to Ohio State seems, at this point to have served as a wake-up call for a squad that may have grown a bit complacent. If so, and if Maryland can maintain the level of play they displayed in the second half against Northwestern, no NCAA team can defeat them. On the other hand, as coach Gait noted in his pregame media teleconference, in any single game, it only takes a fortuitous bounce or two, a hot goalie or an official’s decision to turn a potential loss into a win.
The action starts Friday night at about 7:30 at PPL Park in Chester, PA. The Maryland women’s lacrosse team will be looking for the first of four wins – two from them and two by the men’s squad – that could turn the weekend into a truly historic one for Terrapins lacrosse.
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