It’s time for the Super Regional. Since not everyone follows college baseball closely, the Super Regional is the equivalent of basketball’s Sweet Sixteen. Unlike basketball, however, the Super Regional is a best two of three format and not a single elimination.
The Odd Couple – sort of
In 2014, Maryland reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over four decades. They won the South Carolina Regional upsetting the home standing Gamecocks and advanced to the Super Regional for the first time in program history.
Their reward was a trip to Charlottesville to face the nationally third seeded Virginia Cavaliers. The Terps surprised the Cavaliers when they won the first game but Virginia bounced back to take the next two and advance to the College World Series where they eventually lost in the championship series.
It’s something of a surprise that the same two teams will meet on the same field in 2015 for a chance to play in Omaha – the permanent home of NCAA Baseball’s ultimate tournament.
The NCAA Baseball Tournament begins with 64 teams playing a double elimination format in 16 regions. The NCAA seeds the teams in each region one through four. Thus, there are 16 “number one” seeds. Half of those, the top eight teams, are designated as national seeds and are guaranteed to host a Super Regional should they advance to that round. The eight remaining top seeds will host should they advance in a region when the top seed does not.
In 2015, only one of the top eight seeds failed to advance – the UCLA Bruins. The Bruins were the top overall seed and are the team Maryland (the number three seed in the region) eliminated. The University of California Santa Barbara was the top seed in the matching half of Maryland’s draw. Had they advanced, they would have been the host team for Maryland.
However, UCSB lost first to San Diego State and then to Southern Cal and the team that emerged as the winner of that region was also its number three seed – the Virginia Cavaliers. In this unusual circumstance (the Maryland – Virginia matchup is the only one that doesn’t feature at least one of the top 16 seeds), the participating schools will submit bids to the NCAA to host the Super Regional with the bid usually going to the higher seeded team.
In this instance, both teams were the third seed in their respective regions. Unsurprisingly, the NCAA accepted Virginia’s bid making them the host school.
Because of Maryland’s long history in the ACC, most of you are probably familiar with the University of Virginia. For those who are not, here are
The Basics
University of Virginia
Founded 1819
Student Population (2014) 14,444
Nickname: Cavaliers (secondarily, Wahoos)
Conference: Atlantic Coast (ACC)
Athletic Department Revenue (2014): $80,983,120
Athletic Department Expenses (2014): $79,490,336
2015 Virginia Baseball #3 Seed UCSB Regional
Overall record: 37-22
Conference record: 15-15
Road record: 13-8
Neutral site: 13-4
RPI: 18
Record vs. RPI top 50: 17-13
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 6-4
Strength of Schedule: 13
The Terps need to avoid having a Cavalier attitude
At first glance, Virginia certainly looks like a vulnerable squad that doesn’t resemble last year’s powerhouse that reached the CWS final series. Nothing about their 2015 record, including a disappointing 11-10 at home, appears intimidating. But UVA is not a team the Terps should take lightly. The Terps also need to avoid pressing too much on an effort to gain some redemption from the 2014 Super Regional series loss that ended their somewhat magical late season and postseason run.
A question of healthy pitching
This is a series that could turn on the health of a single player, Nathan Kirby. Kirby was the Cavaliers’ Friday night starter until an injury sidelined him for at least six starts. In 2014, the 6’2” lefthander was an All-American and ACC Co-Pitcher of the Year. He started 10 games in 2015 prior to his injury and compiled a 5-2 record while pitching to a 2.28 earned run average and striking out 75 in just 59.1 innings.
Prior to the NCAA Tournament, Virginia head coach Brian O’Connor said he thought Kirby would be available. However, Kirby didn’t pitch in the regional but the extra week off may make his appearance against Maryland more likely. Facing Kirby is not likely to intimidate the Terps who knocked him around for five runs in 4.2 innings in the first game of the 2014 Super Regional – the only time they faced him last season. The bigger effect is on Virginia’s subsequent rotation.
If Kirby is available to start Friday, it would likely move the very effective Connor Jones (6-2, 2.90 ERA in 15 starts) to Saturday’s second game. Or, O’Connor could choose to start Jones on Friday while saving Kirby for Saturday. If Kirby isn’t able to pitch, Jones will start Friday. O’Connor will then have to decide how to use Josh Sborz and that decision might be influenced by the outcome of Friday’s game.
Brandon Waddell has been the Cavs’ number two or three starter all season. However, the junior from Houston, TX, has not been particularly impressive. He is 3-5 in 15 starts and has a 4.12 ERA and, should the Terps win the series opener on Friday, he is not necessarily the pitcher O’Connor might want to trot out in what would be an elimination game.
Sborz, who entered the postseason tied for the ACC lead with 12 saves, picked up the starting spot sometime after Kirby’s injury. He started four games pitching to a 2-2 record but sporting a 2.49 ERA. O’Connor moved him back to the bullpen for the NCAA Regional where Sborz picked up a save and a win appearing in all three games.
Maryland coach John Szefc and pitching guru Jim Belanger may also have to make some injury impacted decisions with regard to Maryland’s rotation. Despite facing an elimination game Monday at UCLA, the Terps managed to avoid calling on ace Mike Shawaryn to pitch.
Shawaryn will certainly take the mound for the Terps Friday and, like the rest of his teammates will be looking for a bit of redemption and revenge from last year’s disappointment in Charlottesville. Then a freshman, Shawaryn managed his way through six innings holding the Cavaliers to just two runs despite giving up 10 hits. His day finished in the seventh when he gave up back to back singles and hit a batter without recording an out. All three runners scored in a game the Terps eventually lost 7-3.
The rotation becomes potentially interesting after Shawaryn’s Friday star. Freshman right hander Brian Shaffer gave the Terps seven quality innings in his Big Ten Tournament start against Illinois holding the Illini to just one run on six hits and a walk while striking out seven. That performance earned him the start against UCLA in the NCAA Regional. However, Shaffer left the game after just two innings with reported forearm stiffness.
If Shaffer can’s pitch, Szefc will likely choose between two other freshmen – Taylor Bloom and Ryan Selmer. Selmer struggled in his start against UCLA giving up three runs and eight hits in two and two-thirds innings after tossing five and two-thirds innings of shurout ball against Indiana in the B1G Tournament.
Bloom, who was superb in his six innings against UCLA, gave the Terps three strong innings in the B1G title game but lost control of things in the fourth when Michigan scored four times en route to their 4-3 win.
Now it’s time to get offensive
In comparing the output of NCAA teams, conference affiliation should always be a consideration color the effective comparability of the light we see emerging from these different prisms. Keep in mind that Virginia played in one the NCAA’s top two baseball conferences. The ACC sent seven teams to the Tournament and four are still playing. Maryland and Illinois remain from five B1G teams that started the tourney.
In many ways, Virginia looks a bit like UCLA lite. While none of the six Pac-12 teams reached a Super Regional, it might be helpful to look at a simple side by side comparison of some basic stats between the Terps’ once and future opponents:
| Virginia | UCLA | |
| Batting Average | .273 | .284 |
| Runs | 323 | 363 |
| Doubles | 89 | 130 |
| Home Runs | 32 | 33 |
| Slugging % | .378 | .409 |
As you might expect, most of the offense comes from the middle of the Cavaliers’ lineup. Only two players are currently batting over .300. Sophomore catcher Matt Thaiss leads Virginia in average (.326) home runs (9), runs batted in (59), slugging percentage (.520) and total bases (115). Left fielder Pavin Smith, a freshman, bats .309 and is tied for second with six home runs.
Though these are the only players currently batting over .300, the Cavs have a cohort of players just on the cusp of that number in third baseman Kenny Towns, shortstop Daniel Pinero and first baseman Robbie Corman. All three are batting .297 or above. The likely order Terps fans will see them bat is Pinero (2), Thaiss (3), Towns (4) and Smith (5). These are the four hitters Maryland’s pitchers need to control. Together they account for 26 of Virginia’s 33 home runs and 185 of their 294 RBI.
As it was with UCLA, the key to the series is likely to be getting ahead early. If O’Connor doesn’t need to start Sborz, the Terps want to keep him in the bullpen. And, if Maryland can do that, a first ever appearance in the College World Series should be on Maryland’s horizon.
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